sábado, 1 de noviembre de 2008

The writing on the wall

Oct 30th 2008 | SANTIAGO
From The Economist print edition

And it points to the right

MUCH as some of them tried to claim the result was a victory of sorts, the dejected faces of the leaders of Chile’s governing centre-left Concertación coalition on the night of October 26th told a different story. In that day’s municipal elections, Alliance, the centre-right opposition, won 41% of the vote for mayors, two percentage points more than the Concertación but enough to win eight of the 14 regional capitals. It was the first-ever defeat in a nationwide election for the Concertación, which has ruled Chile ever since the end of General Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship in 1990. Jubilant Alliance leaders reckon that the result paves the way for them to win the presidency in an election in December next year—and to counter South America’s recent drift to the left.

The victory was not clear-cut. Confusingly, municipal councillors are elected separately. In that ballot the Concertación, which includes the Socialist and Christian Democrat parties, won 45% of the total vote to 36% for the Alliance. But more people (some 10% more) voted for mayors than for councillors. The overall result confirmed opinion polls that make Sebastián Piñera, a wealthy businessman and the Alliance’s putative candidate, the front-runner for the presidency.

A dress rehearsal for the presidency

Voters punished the Concertación because it is tired, increasingly ineffective and fractious. It has presided over the consolidation of Chile’s democracy, almost two decades of economic growth and stability, and much social progress. But under Michelle Bachelet, the president since 2006, it has run out of steam. It has failed to promote new, younger leaders. A spate of corruption scandals, though mostly minor, has left even some Concertación supporters wondering whether 20 years in office might not be enough. Chile’s economy may be stronger than that of many of its neighbours, but it no longer grows at Asian rates, and inflation has spiked this year. A botched attempt to modernise public transport in Santiago, the capital, smacked of incompetence.

But if voters are tiring of the Concertación, opinion polls suggest they are not thrilled by the Alliance. The voting system, bequeathed by General Pinochet, divides the country into two-member constituencies, thus cementing a two-coalition system and punishing third parties. This has produced political stability but is widely blamed for apathy. Nevertheless, in the municipal election a new force formed mainly by defectors from the Christian Democrats won 7.6% of the vote, while a far-left coalition got 9.1%.

Ms Bachelet this week called on the Concertación to show “unity, unity and more unity”. She also called for an electoral pact with the far left—which would push Christian Democrat voters towards Mr Piñera. She has presided over unprecedented infighting among the Concertación’s four parties. Since presidents cannot serve consecutive terms, the coalition must now try to unite behind a successor to Ms Bachelet, decide how to choose one and agree a programme. There are three strong contenders: Ricardo Lagos, a former president, is Chile’s most popular politician; the stolid Eduardo Frei, another ex-president, might appeal to the centre; José Miguel Insulza, the secretary-general of the Organisation of American States, has said that he would stand only if the Concertación fields a single candidate.

Chileans have not elected a government of the right for half a century. Mr Piñera’s victory is not assured. But Alliance has taken the first step. As the economy slows along with the world’s, the government will start to spend some of the windfall copper revenues it has saved. But many of the mayors implementing job-creation schemes will now be from the opposition, and they will doubtless claim the credit for them. No wonder the Concertación looked so glum on election night.

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